![]() Obvious predictions won’t cause any new thoughts or shift any actions. To achieve this a prediction needs to be non-obvious and create agency.Ī good prediction is non-obvious. Good predictions are non-obvious and create agencyĪ good prediction enables people to think thoughts they would not have thought before and ideally take action on them. Terrible predictions do not need to be the norm. It was just based on a set of hidden assumptions that changed as soon as you could mount a gun on a plane and build flak cannons. ![]() To be fair to the people who predicted this - at the time it seemed like a perfectly reasonable prediction. When airplanes were sold to the US Army in 1909 the common idea of the time was “With the perfect development of the airplane, wars will be only an incident of past ages.” 1 Most predictions look like this.
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